{ "schemaVersion": 2, "unit": "synthetic utility gain above outside option", "labels": { "buyers": { "neutral": "Neutral", "firm": "Firm", "collaborative": "Collaborative", "programmed": "Programmed" }, "sellers": { "early": "Early programmed seller", "late": "Late programmed seller", "neutral_sol": "Neutral Sol seller" }, "categories": { "tradeoffs": "Tradeoffs", "narrow_zone": "Narrow agreement zone", "no_zone": "No agreement zone" }, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": "Firm \u2212 neutral", "collaborative_minus_neutral": "Collaborative \u2212 neutral", "neutral_minus_programmed": "Neutral \u2212 programmed", "firm_minus_programmed": "Firm \u2212 programmed", "collaborative_minus_programmed": "Collaborative \u2212 programmed" }, "subgroupFamilies": { "seller": "Seller policy", "category": "Scenario category", "seller_by_category": "Scenario category \u00d7 seller policy", "first_mover": "First mover" }, "subgroupGroups": { "seller": { "early": "Early programmed seller", "late": "Late programmed seller", "neutral_sol": "Neutral Sol seller" }, "category": { "tradeoffs": "Tradeoffs", "narrow_zone": "Narrow agreement zone", "no_zone": "No agreement zone" }, "seller_by_category": { "tradeoffs/early": "Tradeoffs \u00d7 Early programmed seller", "tradeoffs/late": "Tradeoffs \u00d7 Late programmed seller", "tradeoffs/neutral_sol": "Tradeoffs \u00d7 Neutral Sol seller", "narrow_zone/early": "Narrow agreement zone \u00d7 Early programmed seller", "narrow_zone/late": "Narrow agreement zone \u00d7 Late programmed seller", "narrow_zone/neutral_sol": "Narrow agreement zone \u00d7 Neutral Sol seller", "no_zone/early": "No agreement zone \u00d7 Early programmed seller", "no_zone/late": "No agreement zone \u00d7 Late programmed seller", "no_zone/neutral_sol": "No agreement zone \u00d7 Neutral Sol seller" }, "first_mover": { "buyer": "Buyer moves first", "seller": "Seller moves first" } } }, "main": { "classification": "post_interim_amended_exploratory", "population": "All 180 designed scenarios \u00d7 4 buyer policies \u00d7 3 seller policies", "weights": "Equal category and seller weights", "scenarios": 180, "episodes": 2160, "complete": true, "operationalFeasibility": false, "confirmatory": false, "practicalMargin": 5, "contrastIntervals": "Copied unchanged from reviewed fixed scenario-bootstrap output; no new interval estimation.", "contrasts": [ { "id": "firm_minus_neutral", "estimate": -0.09259259259259259, "ci95": [ -0.46296296296296297, 0.2777777777777778 ], "ci99": [ -0.5833333333333334, 0.37962962962962965 ], "failureBounds": { "adverse": { "estimate": -1.0185185185185186, "ci99": [ -2.5462962962962963, 0.018518518518518517 ] }, "opposite": { "estimate": 1.0, "ci99": [ -0.2593055555555555, 2.7685185185185186 ] } } }, { "id": "collaborative_minus_neutral", "estimate": 0.6296296296296297, "ci95": [ 0.28703703703703703, 0.9814814814814815 ], "ci99": [ 0.18518518518518517, 1.1018518518518519 ], "failureBounds": { "adverse": { "estimate": -0.8148148148148148, "ci99": [ -2.6203703703703702, 0.5925925925925926 ] }, "opposite": { "estimate": 2.1296296296296298, "ci99": [ 0.7129166666666666, 3.9814814814814814 ] } } }, { "id": "neutral_minus_programmed", "estimate": 2.3796296296296298, "ci95": [ 1.712962962962963, 3.0555555555555554 ], "ci99": [ 1.4814814814814814, 3.259259259259259 ], "failureBounds": { "adverse": { "estimate": 1.5277777777777777, "ci99": [ -0.11124999999999986, 2.9166666666666665 ] }, "opposite": { "estimate": 3.037037037037037, "ci99": [ 1.9258796296296297, 4.305555555555555 ] } } }, { "id": "firm_minus_programmed", "estimate": 2.287037037037037, "ci95": [ 1.5555555555555556, 3.009259259259259 ], "ci99": [ 1.324027777777778, 3.240740740740741 ], "failureBounds": { "adverse": { "estimate": 2.0185185185185186, "ci99": [ 0.8981481481481481, 3.111111111111111 ] }, "opposite": { "estimate": 2.5277777777777777, "ci99": [ 1.5185185185185186, 3.537037037037037 ] } } }, { "id": "collaborative_minus_programmed", "estimate": 3.009259259259259, "ci95": [ 2.3703703703703702, 3.6481481481481484 ], "ci99": [ 2.1944444444444446, 3.8518518518518516 ], "failureBounds": { "adverse": { "estimate": 2.2222222222222223, "ci99": [ 0.7407407407407407, 3.4537037037037037 ] }, "opposite": { "estimate": 3.6574074074074074, "ci99": [ 2.6944444444444446, 4.712962962962963 ] } } } ], "cells": [ { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "early", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 13.083333333333334, "sellerGain": 6.472222222222222, "jointGain": 19.555555555555557, "agreements": 109, "walkaways": 69, "failures": 2 }, { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "late", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 7.666666666666667, "sellerGain": 12.166666666666666, "jointGain": 19.833333333333332, "agreements": 105, "walkaways": 74, "failures": 1 }, { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 11.916666666666666, "sellerGain": 8.972222222222221, "jointGain": 20.88888888888889, "agreements": 106, "walkaways": 71, "failures": 3 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "early", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 13.25, "sellerGain": 6.083333333333333, "jointGain": 19.333333333333332, "agreements": 108, "walkaways": 72, "failures": 0 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "late", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 7.527777777777778, "sellerGain": 12.083333333333334, "jointGain": 19.61111111111111, "agreements": 107, "walkaways": 73, "failures": 0 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 11.61111111111111, "sellerGain": 9.027777777777779, "jointGain": 20.63888888888889, "agreements": 109, "walkaways": 69, "failures": 2 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "early", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 14.305555555555555, "sellerGain": 6.527777777777778, "jointGain": 20.833333333333332, "agreements": 114, "walkaways": 65, "failures": 1 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "late", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 8.305555555555555, "sellerGain": 12.222222222222221, "jointGain": 20.52777777777778, "agreements": 108, "walkaways": 70, "failures": 2 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 11.944444444444445, "sellerGain": 9.305555555555555, "jointGain": 21.25, "agreements": 107, "walkaways": 70, "failures": 3 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "early", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 11.277777777777779, "sellerGain": 7.138888888888889, "jointGain": 18.416666666666668, "agreements": 119, "walkaways": 61, "failures": 0 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "late", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 5.194444444444445, "sellerGain": 9.027777777777779, "jointGain": 14.222222222222221, "agreements": 109, "walkaways": 71, "failures": 0 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 180, "buyerGain": 9.055555555555555, "sellerGain": 10.444444444444445, "jointGain": 19.5, "agreements": 107, "walkaways": 73, "failures": 0 } ], "buyerPolicies": [ { "buyer": "neutral", "n": 540, "buyerGain": 10.88888888888889, "sellerGain": 9.203703703703704, "jointGain": 20.09259259259259, "agreements": 320, "failures": 6, "settledUsdPer1000": 31.73355576666667 }, { "buyer": "firm", "n": 540, "buyerGain": 10.796296296296296, "sellerGain": 9.064814814814815, "jointGain": 19.86111111111111, "agreements": 324, "failures": 2, "settledUsdPer1000": 29.529933514814818 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "n": 540, "buyerGain": 11.518518518518519, "sellerGain": 9.351851851851851, "jointGain": 20.87037037037037, "agreements": 329, "failures": 6, "settledUsdPer1000": 33.091570553703704 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "n": 540, "buyerGain": 8.50925925925926, "sellerGain": 8.87037037037037, "jointGain": 17.37962962962963, "agreements": 335, "failures": 0, "settledUsdPer1000": 7.908485238888889 } ], "counts": { "attempts": 12979, "savedResponses": 12974, "agreements": 1308, "walkaways": 838, "failures": 14, "missingAssignments": 0 }, "costNano": { "mainSettled": 55222314340, "pilotsSettled": 7966240044, "lifetimeSettled": 63188554384, "unknownReserve": 188880000, "lifetimeConservative": 63377434384 }, "caveats": [ "No confirmatory advantage, equivalence, tie or global winner is declared.", "Infrastructure failures have zero operational gain; their unobserved strategic outcomes remain covered by both frozen bounds.", "Seller population: two programmed policies and neutral Sol; these are not human bargaining results." ], "reversals": [ { "family": "seller", "group": "early", "contrast": "firm_minus_neutral", "pooled_estimate": -0.09259259259259259, "subgroup_estimate": 0.16666666666666666 }, { "family": "category", "group": "tradeoffs", "contrast": "firm_minus_neutral", "pooled_estimate": -0.09259259259259259, "subgroup_estimate": 0.3888888888888889 }, { "family": "seller_by_category", "group": "tradeoffs/early", "contrast": "firm_minus_neutral", "pooled_estimate": -0.09259259259259259, "subgroup_estimate": 1.8333333333333333 }, { "family": "seller_by_category", "group": "tradeoffs/neutral_sol", "contrast": "collaborative_minus_neutral", "pooled_estimate": 0.6296296296296297, "subgroup_estimate": -0.5833333333333334 }, { "family": "seller_by_category", "group": "narrow_zone/early", "contrast": "firm_minus_programmed", "pooled_estimate": 2.287037037037037, "subgroup_estimate": -0.08333333333333333 }, { "family": "seller_by_category", "group": "narrow_zone/late", "contrast": "firm_minus_neutral", "pooled_estimate": -0.09259259259259259, "subgroup_estimate": 0.16666666666666666 } ], "subgroups": { "seller": { "early": { "scenarios": 180, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.16666666666666666, "ci95": [ -0.4166666666666667, 0.75 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 1.2222222222222223, "ci95": [ 0.6388888888888888, 1.8055555555555556 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 1.8055555555555556, "ci95": [ 0.9444444444444444, 2.6666666666666665 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 1.9722222222222223, "ci95": [ 1.0277777777777777, 2.9444444444444446 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 3.0277777777777777, "ci95": [ 2.2222222222222223, 3.8333333333333335 ] } } }, "late": { "scenarios": 180, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.1388888888888889, "ci95": [ -0.7222222222222222, 0.4444444444444444 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.6388888888888888, "ci95": [ -0.027777777777777776, 1.2777777777777777 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.4722222222222223, "ci95": [ 1.5277777777777777, 3.4444444444444446 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.3333333333333335, "ci95": [ 1.3611111111111112, 3.3055555555555554 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 3.111111111111111, "ci95": [ 2.2215277777777787, 4.027777777777778 ] } } }, "neutral_sol": { "scenarios": 180, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.3055555555555556, "ci95": [ -1.0277777777777777, 0.3888888888888889 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.027777777777777776, "ci95": [ -0.6388888888888888, 0.6944444444444444 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.861111111111111, "ci95": [ 2.0555555555555554, 3.6666666666666665 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.5555555555555554, "ci95": [ 1.7222222222222223, 3.388888888888889 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.888888888888889, "ci95": [ 2.0277777777777777, 3.75 ] } } } }, "category": { "tradeoffs": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.3888888888888889, "ci95": [ -0.5, 1.2222222222222223 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 1.0277777777777777, "ci95": [ 0.2777777777777778, 1.7777777777777777 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 5.638888888888889, "ci95": [ 3.9444444444444446, 7.472222222222222 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 6.027777777777778, "ci95": [ 4.166666666666667, 7.972222222222222 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 6.666666666666667, "ci95": [ 5.111111111111111, 8.305555555555555 ] } } }, "narrow_zone": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.6666666666666666, "ci95": [ -1.3333333333333333, 0.027777777777777776 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.8611111111111112, "ci95": [ 0.16597222222222285, 1.5833333333333333 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 1.5, "ci95": [ 0.5, 2.4722222222222223 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.8333333333333334, "ci95": [ -0.2777777777777778, 1.8888888888888888 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.361111111111111, "ci95": [ 1.3611111111111112, 3.3333333333333335 ] } } }, "no_zone": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] } } } }, "seller_by_category": { "tradeoffs/early": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 1.8333333333333333, "ci95": [ 0.5833333333333334, 3.1666666666666665 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 2.9166666666666665, "ci95": [ 1.5, 4.333333333333333 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 4.166666666666667, "ci95": [ 1.8333333333333333, 6.583333333333333 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 6.0, "ci95": [ 3.5833333333333335, 8.583333333333334 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 7.083333333333333, "ci95": [ 5.0, 9.25 ] } } }, "tradeoffs/late": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.5833333333333334, "ci95": [ -2.0, 0.8333333333333334 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.75, "ci95": [ -0.9166666666666666, 2.3333333333333335 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 7.333333333333333, "ci95": [ 5.0, 9.833333333333334 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 6.75, "ci95": [ 4.5, 9.166666666666666 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 8.083333333333334, "ci95": [ 5.916666666666667, 10.25 ] } } }, "tradeoffs/neutral_sol": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.08333333333333333, "ci95": [ -1.9166666666666667, 1.6666666666666667 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.5833333333333334, "ci95": [ -2.1666666666666665, 1.0 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 5.416666666666667, "ci95": [ 3.3333333333333335, 7.5 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 5.333333333333333, "ci95": [ 3.0833333333333335, 7.5 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 4.833333333333333, "ci95": [ 2.5833333333333335, 7.083333333333333 ] } } }, "narrow_zone/early": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -1.3333333333333333, "ci95": [ -2.5, -0.16666666666666666 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.75, "ci95": [ -0.16666666666666666, 1.75 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 1.25, "ci95": [ 0.0, 2.4166666666666665 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": -0.08333333333333333, "ci95": [ -1.5, 1.25 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.0, "ci95": [ 0.8333333333333334, 3.1666666666666665 ] } } }, "narrow_zone/late": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.16666666666666666, "ci95": [ -0.8333333333333334, 1.1666666666666667 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 1.1666666666666667, "ci95": [ 0.0, 2.3333333333333335 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.08333333333333333, "ci95": [ -1.4166666666666667, 1.5833333333333333 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.25, "ci95": [ -1.5, 2.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 1.25, "ci95": [ -0.3333333333333333, 2.752083333333303 ] } } }, "narrow_zone/neutral_sol": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.8333333333333334, "ci95": [ -1.9166666666666667, 0.3333333333333333 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.6666666666666666, "ci95": [ -0.5833333333333334, 1.9166666666666667 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 3.1666666666666665, "ci95": [ 1.9166666666666667, 4.416666666666667 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 2.3333333333333335, "ci95": [ 1.0, 3.5833333333333335 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 3.8333333333333335, "ci95": [ 2.5, 5.166666666666667 ] } } }, "no_zone/early": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] } } }, "no_zone/late": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] } } }, "no_zone/neutral_sol": { "scenarios": 60, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.0, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ] } } } }, "first_mover": { "buyer": { "scenarios": 90, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.07407407407407407, "ci95": [ -0.4749999999999999, 0.6372957516339863 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.5555555555555556, "ci95": [ 0.057380472350230416, 1.0668367294273091 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 4.444444444444445, "ci95": [ 3.5402971172365887, 5.386044973544974 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 4.518518518518518, "ci95": [ 3.6410593681917214, 5.43797907339574 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 5.0, "ci95": [ 4.127300043804211, 5.862272652116402 ] } } }, "seller": { "scenarios": 90, "contrasts": { "firm_minus_neutral": { "estimate": -0.25925925925925924, "ci95": [ -0.7694854953475643, 0.2006523569023564 ] }, "collaborative_minus_neutral": { "estimate": 0.7037037037037037, "ci95": [ 0.2202496515332537, 1.1940265234446266 ] }, "neutral_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.3148148148148148, "ci95": [ -0.33719813683048977, 0.9808467725106218 ] }, "firm_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 0.05555555555555555, "ci95": [ -0.7611785156804314, 0.8636318806274944 ] }, "collaborative_minus_programmed": { "estimate": 1.0185185185185186, "ci95": [ 0.4121863799283154, 1.6421713172448464 ] } } } } }, "reversalCaveat": "These six exploratory point-estimate sign reversals show how pooled averages vary across the fixed seller/scenario mixture. They do not by themselves establish reliable subgroup effects; inspect the frozen 95% subgroup intervals. Subgroup results are not a newly selected confirmatory family." }, "roleGap": { "classification": "post_hoc_exploratory", "population": "107 feasible scenarios with equal separate attainable buyer/seller maxima among mutually acceptable contracts; one neutral-buyer/neutral-Sol-seller episode per scenario", "n": 107, "categories": { "narrow_zone": 59, "tradeoffs": 48 }, "excluded": { "noZone": 60, "unequalMaxima": 13 }, "counts": { "buyerHigher": 43, "sellerHigher": 36, "equal": 27, "equalAgreements": 14, "equalWalkaways": 13, "failures": 1, "zeroIncludingFailure": 28 }, "buyerMean": 14.672897196261681, "sellerMean": 12.897196261682243, "estimates": { "observed": { "estimate": 1.7757009345794392, "ci95": [ -0.2336448598130841, 3.7850467289719627 ], "ci99": [ -0.9813084112149533, 4.4392523364485985 ] }, "adverse": { "estimate": 0.514018691588785, "ci95": [ -2.9906542056074765, 3.317757009345794 ], "ci99": [ -4.392757009345795, 4.205607476635514 ] }, "opposite": { "estimate": 3.177570093457944, "ci95": [ 0.2336448598130841, 6.775700934579439 ], "ci99": [ -0.4672897196261682, 7.990654205607477 ] } }, "failureBounds": [ -135, 150 ], "rows": [ { "scenario": "M002", "episode": "M002-E03", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M003", "episode": "M003-E11", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 15, "seller": 35, "gap": -20, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M004", "episode": "M004-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 5, "gap": 20, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M005", "episode": "M005-E06", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M008", "episode": "M008-E12", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M010", "episode": "M010-E06", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 20, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M012", "episode": "M012-E04", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M014", "episode": "M014-E12", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M015", "episode": "M015-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 30, "seller": 45, "gap": -15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M016", "episode": "M016-E02", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M017", "episode": "M017-E06", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 30, "seller": 25, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M020", "episode": "M020-E06", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M024", "episode": "M024-E07", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 10, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M025", "episode": "M025-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M027", "episode": "M027-E02", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 40, "seller": 5, "gap": 35, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M029", "episode": "M029-E08", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 35, "seller": 30, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M030", "episode": "M030-E10", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M033", "episode": "M033-E08", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 10, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M034", "episode": "M034-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 25, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M036", "episode": "M036-E12", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M037", "episode": "M037-E09", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M038", "episode": "M038-E09", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 30, "gap": -20, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M042", "episode": "M042-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M043", "episode": "M043-E10", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M047", "episode": "M047-E11", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 20, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M048", "episode": "M048-E09", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M049", "episode": "M049-E05", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 0, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M051", "episode": "M051-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 30, "seller": 25, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M052", "episode": "M052-E09", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M054", "episode": "M054-E08", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 20, "seller": 10, "gap": 10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M056", "episode": "M056-E11", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 35, "seller": 35, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M057", "episode": "M057-E12", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M058", "episode": "M058-E06", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 15, "seller": 15, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M060", "episode": "M060-E10", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M061", "episode": "M061-E03", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 15, "seller": 10, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M063", "episode": "M063-E03", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M064", "episode": "M064-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 40, "gap": -15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M065", "episode": "M065-E05", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 10, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M067", "episode": "M067-E06", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M070", "episode": "M070-E08", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M071", "episode": "M071-E05", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 10, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M075", "episode": "M075-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M077", "episode": "M077-E07", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 15, "seller": 25, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M078", "episode": "M078-E03", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M081", "episode": "M081-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 40, "gap": -15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M082", "episode": "M082-E10", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M083", "episode": "M083-E09", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 45, "seller": 30, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M086", "episode": "M086-E04", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 15, "seller": 0, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M087", "episode": "M087-E07", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 30, "seller": 15, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M088", "episode": "M088-E11", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M090", "episode": "M090-E02", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 20, "seller": 35, "gap": -15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M091", "episode": "M091-E12", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M092", "episode": "M092-E09", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 20, "seller": 30, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M094", "episode": "M094-E06", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M096", "episode": "M096-E07", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 20, "seller": 30, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M098", "episode": "M098-E02", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M100", "episode": "M100-E09", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M103", "episode": "M103-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 20, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M105", "episode": "M105-E03", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M106", "episode": "M106-E02", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 20, "seller": 10, "gap": 10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M107", "episode": "M107-E06", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M109", "episode": "M109-E12", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 0, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M110", "episode": "M110-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 15, "seller": 30, "gap": -15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M113", "episode": "M113-E11", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M114", "episode": "M114-E11", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 45, "seller": 30, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M116", "episode": "M116-E06", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M119", "episode": "M119-E02", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 5, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M120", "episode": "M120-E07", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 40, "seller": 50, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M121", "episode": "M121-E10", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M123", "episode": "M123-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 40, "seller": 10, "gap": 30, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M124", "episode": "M124-E02", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 35, "seller": 15, "gap": 20, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M126", "episode": "M126-E08", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M128", "episode": "M128-E08", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M129", "episode": "M129-E07", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 15, "seller": 25, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M130", "episode": "M130-E12", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M132", "episode": "M132-E09", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 10, "seller": 20, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M134", "episode": "M134-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 30, "seller": 25, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M135", "episode": "M135-E02", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 15, "gap": -15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M136", "episode": "M136-E05", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 25, "seller": 25, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M138", "episode": "M138-E11", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M140", "episode": "M140-E09", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M142", "episode": "M142-E11", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M144", "episode": "M144-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 30, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M146", "episode": "M146-E06", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M147", "episode": "M147-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 30, "seller": 15, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M148", "episode": "M148-E06", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 40, "seller": 10, "gap": 30, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M149", "episode": "M149-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 15, "seller": 0, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M152", "episode": "M152-E06", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 25, "seller": 10, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M153", "episode": "M153-E02", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 0, "gap": 10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M155", "episode": "M155-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M156", "episode": "M156-E11", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 40, "seller": 20, "gap": 20, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M157", "episode": "M157-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 10, "gap": -10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M159", "episode": "M159-E11", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 20, "seller": 10, "gap": 10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M161", "episode": "M161-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 35, "seller": 10, "gap": 25, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M162", "episode": "M162-E07", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M163", "episode": "M163-E03", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 10, "seller": 5, "gap": 5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M165", "episode": "M165-E04", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 30, "seller": 10, "gap": 20, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M166", "episode": "M166-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 10, "seller": 0, "gap": 10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M168", "episode": "M168-E03", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 50, "seller": 25, "gap": 25, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M169", "episode": "M169-E01", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 45, "seller": 30, "gap": 15, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M170", "episode": "M170-E07", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M173", "episode": "M173-E01", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "walkaway" }, { "scenario": "M174", "episode": "M174-E05", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 15, "seller": 20, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M176", "episode": "M176-E09", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 50, "seller": 40, "gap": 10, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M177", "episode": "M177-E03", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 5, "gap": 0, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M179", "episode": "M179-E10", "category": "narrow_zone", "firstMover": "seller", "buyer": 5, "seller": 10, "gap": -5, "failure": false, "terminal_reason": "agreement" }, { "scenario": "M180", "episode": "M180-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": true, "terminal_reason": "transport_failure" } ], "histogram": [ { "gap": -20, "count": 2, "completed": 2, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": -15, "count": 6, "completed": 6, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": -10, "count": 11, "completed": 11, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": -5, "count": 17, "completed": 17, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": 0, "count": 28, "completed": 27, "failures": 1 }, { "gap": 5, "count": 19, "completed": 19, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": 10, "count": 6, "completed": 6, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": 15, "count": 9, "completed": 9, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": 20, "count": 4, "completed": 4, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": 25, "count": 2, "completed": 2, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": 30, "count": 2, "completed": 2, "failures": 0 }, { "gap": 35, "count": 1, "completed": 1, "failures": 0 } ], "histogramNote": "Exact integer buyer-minus-seller gaps. Zero bin includes 27 completed equal outcomes and one infrastructure zero; failure is separately marked.", "caveats": [ "Distinct post-hoc subset and paired role comparison, not the main 2160-negotiation estimate.", "Equal attainable maxima do not imply symmetric bargaining positions.", "Observed 95% interval spans zero; no reliable buyer-role advantage or equivalence established.", "The main five-unit buyer-policy margin is not a threshold for this different role-gap outcome." ] }, "example": { "episode": "M090-E05", "scenario": "M090", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyerPolicy": "collaborative", "sellerPolicy": "neutral_sol", "firstMover": "seller", "selection": "Illustrative saved negotiation selected for explanation; not a representative sample or proof of mechanism.", "publicTranscript": [ { "slot": 1, "actor": "seller", "type": "OFFER", "message": "$180 with rush delivery, extended support, and net60 payment.", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:01", "contract": { "contract_id": "C167", "price": 180, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 1 }, "gains": { "buyer": -25, "seller": 70, "joint": 45 } }, { "slot": 2, "actor": "buyer", "type": "OFFER", "message": "I offer $110 for rush delivery, extended support, and standard payment. Which terms are least costly for you?", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:02", "contract": { "contract_id": "C054", "price": 110, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 }, "gains": { "buyer": 45, "seller": 10, "joint": 55 } }, { "slot": 3, "actor": "seller", "type": "OFFER", "message": "I can include rush delivery and extended support at $150 with standard payment.", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:03", "contract": { "contract_id": "C118", "price": 150, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 }, "gains": { "buyer": 5, "seller": 50, "joint": 55 } }, { "slot": 4, "actor": "buyer", "type": "OFFER", "message": "$125 for rush delivery, extended support, and standard payment. Which costs you less: rush delivery or extended support?", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:04", "contract": { "contract_id": "C078", "price": 125, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 }, "gains": { "buyer": 30, "seller": 25, "joint": 55 } }, { "slot": 5, "actor": "seller", "type": "OFFER", "message": "$140 with rush delivery, extended support, and standard payment.", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:05", "contract": { "contract_id": "C102", "price": 140, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 }, "gains": { "buyer": 15, "seller": 40, "joint": 55 } }, { "slot": 6, "actor": "buyer", "type": "OFFER", "message": "$130 for rush delivery, extended support, and standard payment. Keeping standard payment supports this price.", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:06", "contract": { "contract_id": "C086", "price": 130, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 }, "gains": { "buyer": 25, "seller": 30, "joint": 55 } }, { "slot": 7, "actor": "seller", "type": "OFFER", "message": "Let's meet at $135 with rush delivery, extended support, and standard payment.", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:07", "contract": { "contract_id": "C094", "price": 135, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 }, "gains": { "buyer": 20, "seller": 35, "joint": 55 } }, { "slot": 8, "actor": "buyer", "type": "OFFER", "message": "I can close at $130 with rush delivery, extended support, and standard payment.", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:08", "contract": { "contract_id": "C086", "price": 130, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 }, "gains": { "buyer": 25, "seller": 30, "joint": 55 } }, { "slot": 9, "actor": "seller", "type": "ACCEPT", "message": "Agreed: $130 with rush delivery, extended support, and standard payment.", "valid": true, "offer": "offer:08", "contract": { "contract_id": "C086", "price": 130, "delivery": 1, "support": 1, "payment": 0 } } ], "readerOnlyEconomics": { "disclosure": "These synthetic private value/cost parameters are shown to readers after the negotiation. Each negotiator originally saw only its own private values.", "issueOrder": [ "delivery", "support", "payment" ], "buyer": { "baseValue": 110, "marginalValues": [ 25, 20, 0 ], "outsideOption": 0 }, "seller": { "baseCost": 80, "marginalCosts": [ 0, 0, 10 ], "outsideOption": 20 }, "terms": { "delivery": [ "standard", "rush" ], "support": [ "standard", "extended" ], "payment": [ "standard", "net60" ] }, "accepted": { "price": 130, "delivery": "rush", "support": "extended", "payment": "standard", "buyerValue": 155, "sellerCost": 80, "buyerUtility": 25, "sellerUtility": 50, "buyerGain": 25, "sellerGain": 30, "jointGain": 55 }, "explanation": [ "Buyer value: 110 + 25 for rush + 20 for extended support = 155. Paying 130 leaves utility 25; its outside option is 0, so gain is 25.", "Seller cost: 80 + 0 for rush + 0 for extended support = 80. Receiving 130 leaves utility 50; subtracting its outside option of 20 leaves gain 30.", "Joint gain is 25 + 30 = 55. Net60 adds no buyer value here but adds 10 seller cost.", "Prices and payoffs belong to a synthetic game; API spend is a separate real-dollar accounting measure." ] }, "scores": { "buyer": 25, "seller": 30, "joint": 55, "bestFeasibleJoint": 55, "efficiency": 1, "terminal_reason": "agreement" } }, "sources": { "summary": { "file": "COMBINED-SUMMARY-v1.json", "sha256": "3adf486807301ea4386fdc10c66156c4d2835bc0b0e7147dc7ea85a786aa0971" }, "posthoc": { "file": "ANALYSIS-v1.json", "sha256": "a0e1e43232b399379583f552d34f6ebf25d3be41c805eb23d208734a8850c3e2" }, "posthocPlan": { "file": "ANALYSIS-PLAN-v1.json", "sha256": "d8f757201a5fe21bfdddc5c01b16574d3764d3c1a3763c6087d43d0ec596a16d" }, "posthocReview": { "file": "METHODS-REVIEW-v1.md", "sha256": "4f927ffcfd7bd5145783610e625cb7bd85030ed9f918f956fbeda7554ffdffd3" }, "bundle": { "file": "MAIN-BUNDLE-v1.json", "sha256": "fd6578f8d8c33ca5f8a7091f5c5ff4243bb35020b1bc2f6f2763b8ebc205619b" }, "game": { "file": "game.py", "sha256": "3aa75f8990f5f8df1766e5a1e228178efc98ca2e9d2c48634777b179006af39c" }, "mainRows": [ { "segment": "original", "sha256": "3225680ae9a1e6716a06ccc524c67dc328f21fbf8651dc1050908772ff121d8a" }, { "segment": "continuation1", "sha256": "ac1852a1c3507c0c1ac0c3dc6519c8736875360a2dd72325cffe8a4530c1add3" }, { "segment": "continuation2", "sha256": "178236c9dfd6465398829e37f751075de6e754eb0ba2390b2ea37d95b0ff8dbe" }, { "segment": "continuation3", "sha256": "15463cd704f10a15978db1749157cb53d79e8936b9e71bfe565dbb08daf6a53a" }, { "segment": "continuation4", "sha256": "332f3d9464a492e48daeab8f2f3579dbbbb919e5fde0099a73d5889baad9a7d5" } ], "exampleState": { "file": "episode-90-05.state.json", "sha256": "9d3090d06d9526a1387dfc95b866c5ace55c9918a5cebcb52fafd83136cba3ed" }, "exampleResult": { "file": "episode-90-05.result.json", "sha256": "82076c39ccdc45c31ba59d5c20f23e894d68cb34a7273bd9b3aaac2614ec9ccb" }, "previousChart": { "file": "chart-data.json", "sha256": "411dff1e8d7409b178c71d6c633fa2d7755cc0fbff8e8a06539ca82d2a299571" } }, "artifactRevision": 3, "subsetSensitivity": { "classification": "user_requested_post_hoc_descriptive_sensitivity", "weighting": "Equal weight per retained scenario; category weights change after exclusion", "criterion": "Exclude scenarios whose separate maximum buyer and seller gains differ over contracts giving both nonnegative gains", "retained167": { "scenarios": 167, "assignments": 2004, "categories": { "no_zone": 60, "narrow_zone": 59, "tradeoffs": 48 }, "first_mover": { "buyer": 81, "seller": 86 }, "cells": [ { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "early", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 10.658682634730539, "seller_gain": 5.62874251497006, "joint_gain": 16.2874251497006, "infrastructure_cases": 2 }, { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "late", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 6.167664670658683, "seller_gain": 10.359281437125748, "joint_gain": 16.526946107784433, "infrastructure_cases": 1 }, { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 9.401197604790418, "seller_gain": 8.263473053892216, "joint_gain": 17.664670658682635, "infrastructure_cases": 3 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "early", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 10.748502994011975, "seller_gain": 5.299401197604791, "joint_gain": 16.047904191616766, "infrastructure_cases": 0 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "late", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 5.958083832335329, "seller_gain": 10.29940119760479, "joint_gain": 16.25748502994012, "infrastructure_cases": 0 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 9.04191616766467, "seller_gain": 8.41317365269461, "joint_gain": 17.45508982035928, "infrastructure_cases": 2 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "early", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 11.916167664670658, "seller_gain": 5.658682634730539, "joint_gain": 17.5748502994012, "infrastructure_cases": 1 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "late", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 6.8562874251497, "seller_gain": 10.538922155688622, "joint_gain": 17.395209580838323, "infrastructure_cases": 2 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 9.341317365269461, "seller_gain": 8.622754491017965, "joint_gain": 17.964071856287426, "infrastructure_cases": 3 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "early", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 9.730538922155688, "seller_gain": 6.317365269461078, "joint_gain": 16.047904191616766, "infrastructure_cases": 0 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "late", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 4.640718562874252, "seller_gain": 7.724550898203593, "joint_gain": 12.365269461077844, "infrastructure_cases": 0 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 167, "buyer_gain": 7.18562874251497, "seller_gain": 9.550898203592814, "joint_gain": 16.736526946107784, "infrastructure_cases": 0 } ] }, "neutralRoleComparison": [ { "id": "original180", "label": "Original 180 scenarios", "n": 180, "buyerMean": 11.916666666666666, "sellerMean": 8.972222222222221, "gap": 2.9444444444444446, "failures": 3, "categories": { "no_zone": 60, "narrow_zone": 60, "tradeoffs": 60 } }, { "id": "retained167", "label": "167 scenarios: 13 unequal-maxima cases removed; 60 no-zone cases retained", "n": 167, "buyerMean": 9.401197604790418, "sellerMean": 8.263473053892216, "gap": 1.1377245508982037, "failures": 3, "categories": { "no_zone": 60, "narrow_zone": 59, "tradeoffs": 48 } }, { "id": "feasible107", "label": "107 feasible equal-maxima scenarios; no-zone cases removed", "n": 107, "buyerMean": 14.672897196261681, "sellerMean": 12.897196261682243, "gap": 1.7757009345794392, "failures": 1, "categories": { "narrow_zone": 59, "tradeoffs": 48 } } ], "excludedScenarios": [ { "scenario_id": "M007", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 65, "seller_max": 55 }, { "scenario_id": "M021", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 90, "seller_max": 75 }, { "scenario_id": "M022", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 70, "seller_max": 55 }, { "scenario_id": "M032", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 40, "seller_max": 30 }, { "scenario_id": "M040", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 50, "seller_max": 45 }, { "scenario_id": "M045", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 80, "seller_max": 70 }, { "scenario_id": "M069", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 35, "seller_max": 30 }, { "scenario_id": "M074", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 110, "seller_max": 95 }, { "scenario_id": "M080", "category": "narrow_zone", "buyer_max": 15, "seller_max": 10 }, { "scenario_id": "M097", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 85, "seller_max": 75 }, { "scenario_id": "M102", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 45, "seller_max": 35 }, { "scenario_id": "M117", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 85, "seller_max": 80 }, { "scenario_id": "M139", "category": "tradeoffs", "buyer_max": 55, "seller_max": 40 } ], "notes": [ "The original main-study 180-scenario results remain unchanged. These are previously saved post-hoc descriptive sensitivity tables.", "Each retained167 cell has 167 assigned negotiations; 12 cells total 2004 assignments.", "The 167-scenario set retains 60 no-zone scenarios with no mutually acceptable agreement; it must not be called 167 feasible equal-maxima scenarios.", "Equal weight per retained scenario changes category weights after exclusion. Differences between rows are not new treatment contrasts or significance tests.", "The comparison rows contain one neutral-buyer/neutral-Sol-seller episode per scenario: n=180,167,107, not all buyer/seller assignments.", "Gap is the exact arithmetic mean of paired buyer-minus-seller gains. The 107-row gap matches the accepted post-hoc analysis; its existing intervals remain in roleGap.estimates.", "No intervals, p-values or practical-margin declarations were added for the 180/167 rows." ], "sources": { "savedSubset": { "file": "SUBSET-SENSITIVITY-v1.json", "sha256": "596ad3e056ed9894eddd810e2bb414b7ddba97edfda02777c2c14141a94e43f6" }, "posthoc": { "file": "ANALYSIS-v1.json", "sha256": "a0e1e43232b399379583f552d34f6ebf25d3be41c805eb23d208734a8850c3e2" }, "bundle": { "file": "MAIN-BUNDLE-v1.json", "sha256": "fd6578f8d8c33ca5f8a7091f5c5ff4243bb35020b1bc2f6f2763b8ebc205619b" }, "previousChart": { "file": "chart-data-v2.json", "sha256": "9d72a00fddadf7997e290cdf1bcf6a468e4784aaaeb78b8faa40776f6fe9284a" }, "verifiedRawResultCount": 2160 } }, "firstMoverCheck": { "classification": "user_requested_post_hoc_exploratory", "plan_sha256": "ecd1a9a3fd1318f44bbc6d6a2a29da71e3cd658adeabe6e9f849272b415accb5", "input_sha256": "18b24b9b6d41c12f7edb75301fa67482fd56d96552ace3569caedc411821babe", "n": 107, "unadjusted": { "n": 107, "buyer_mean": 14.672897196261681, "seller_mean": 12.897196261682243, "gap": 1.7757009345794392, "counts": { "seller_higher": 36, "buyer_higher": 43, "walkaway": 13, "equal_agreement": 14, "failure": 1 }, "categories": { "narrow_zone": 59, "tradeoffs": 48 } }, "raw_by_first_mover": { "buyer": { "n": 51, "buyer_mean": 15.686274509803921, "seller_mean": 11.27450980392157, "gap": 4.411764705882353, "counts": { "buyer_higher": 25, "equal_agreement": 7, "walkaway": 7, "seller_higher": 11, "failure": 1 }, "categories": { "narrow_zone": 29, "tradeoffs": 22 } }, "seller": { "n": 56, "buyer_mean": 13.75, "seller_mean": 14.375, "gap": -0.625, "counts": { "seller_higher": 25, "buyer_higher": 18, "walkaway": 6, "equal_agreement": 7 }, "categories": { "narrow_zone": 30, "tradeoffs": 26 } } }, "strata": { "tradeoffs__buyer": { "n": 22, "buyer_mean": 28.636363636363637, "seller_mean": 21.363636363636363, "gap": 7.2727272727272725, "counts": { "buyer_higher": 13, "seller_higher": 6, "equal_agreement": 2, "failure": 1 }, "categories": { "tradeoffs": 22 } }, "tradeoffs__seller": { "n": 26, "buyer_mean": 25.384615384615383, "seller_mean": 23.46153846153846, "gap": 1.9230769230769231, "counts": { "seller_higher": 10, "buyer_higher": 14, "equal_agreement": 2 }, "categories": { "tradeoffs": 26 } }, "narrow_zone__buyer": { "n": 29, "buyer_mean": 5.862068965517241, "seller_mean": 3.6206896551724137, "gap": 2.2413793103448274, "counts": { "buyer_higher": 12, "equal_agreement": 5, "walkaway": 7, "seller_higher": 5 }, "categories": { "narrow_zone": 29 } }, "narrow_zone__seller": { "n": 30, "buyer_mean": 3.6666666666666665, "seller_mean": 6.5, "gap": -2.8333333333333335, "counts": { "seller_higher": 15, "walkaway": 6, "buyer_higher": 4, "equal_agreement": 5 }, "categories": { "narrow_zone": 30 } } }, "category_weights": { "tradeoffs": 0.4485981308411215, "narrow_zone": 0.5514018691588785 }, "standardized_by_first_mover": { "buyer": { "buyer_mean": 16.078574986083847, "seller_mean": 11.58014238420297, "gap": 4.498432601880877 }, "seller": { "buyer_mean": 13.409297867241792, "seller_mean": 14.108914450035943, "gap": -0.6996165827941528 } }, "balanced_results": { "observed": { "estimate": 1.899408009543362, "ci95": [ -0.03979513208888006, 3.8496244986617203 ], "ci99": [ -0.6343288546237307, 4.465943958286853 ], "category_standardized_gap_by_starter": { "buyer": 4.498432601880877, "seller": -0.6996165827941528 } }, "adverse": { "estimate": 0.5230273808262851, "ci95": [ -3.2617181507932393, 3.4908601402357426 ], "ci99": [ -4.7718061380557355, 4.112276246688105 ], "category_standardized_gap_by_starter": { "buyer": 1.745671344446723, "seller": -0.6996165827941528 } }, "opposite": { "estimate": 3.4287198192290047, "ci95": [ 0.509980847919939, 7.199344682602819 ], "ci99": [ -0.2412533917098045, 8.610274268378513 ], "category_standardized_gap_by_starter": { "buyer": 7.557056221252161, "seller": -0.6996165827941528 } } }, "failed_episode": { "scenario": "M180", "episode": "M180-E12", "category": "tradeoffs", "firstMover": "buyer", "buyer": 0, "seller": 0, "gap": 0, "failure": true, "terminal_reason": "transport_failure" }, "interpretation": "Balances observed first-mover proportions and category mix descriptively, not causal control. No same-scenario role/order swap was run; other scenario attributes may differ between starter groups. Intervals conditional on post-hoc subset and chosen analysis, not selection-adjusted; no p-values, five-point threshold, repeated-run variability estimate or confirmatory claim. No-zone scenarios remain in the167 broad view and are reported separately, not discarded from overall experiment.", "bootstrap": { "replicates": 10000, "generator": "PCG64", "seed": 2026102902, "unit": "whole paired scenario within category x first-mover strata, retain original stratum sizes; same indices for all failure sensitivities", "intervals": [ 0.95, 0.99 ], "quantile": "linear percentile" } }, "noZoneResults": { "classification": "descriptive_only_no_new_inference", "scenario_count": 60, "assignment_count": 720, "definition": "No legal contract in the 168-contract menu gives both parties nonnegative gain above their outside options.", "overall": { "n": 720, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 713, "infrastructure_failures": 7, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, "cells": [ { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "early", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 59, "infrastructure_failures": 1, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "late", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 59, "infrastructure_failures": 1, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "neutral", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 58, "infrastructure_failures": 2, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "early", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 60, "infrastructure_failures": 0, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "late", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 60, "infrastructure_failures": 0, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "firm", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 59, "infrastructure_failures": 1, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "early", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 59, "infrastructure_failures": 1, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "late", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 59, "infrastructure_failures": 1, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "collaborative", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 60, "infrastructure_failures": 0, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "early", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 60, "infrastructure_failures": 0, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "late", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 60, "infrastructure_failures": 0, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 }, { "buyer": "programmed", "seller": "neutral_sol", "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 60, "infrastructure_failures": 0, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0 } ], "neutral_neutral": { "n": 60, "agreements": 0, "walkaways": 58, "infrastructure_failures": 2, "buyer_mean": 0.0, "seller_mean": 0.0, "joint_mean": 0.0, "harmful_deals": 0, "buyer_harming_deals": 0, "seller_harming_deals": 0, "failure_episodes": [ "M062-E01", "M076-E01" ] }, "caveats": [ "Infrastructure zeros are operational scoring placeholders, not observed strategic ties or chosen walkaways.", "No harmful executed deals were observed; offers that would harm an opponent are not executed deals and are not counted here.", "The 167-to-107 change removes 60 no-zone scenarios; it does not remove 60 failed or harmful deals. The 167 set already removed 13 unequal-maximum feasible scenarios.", "This task adds counts and arithmetic means only, without inference, model calls or changes to original outcomes." ] }, "followupSources": { "ANALYSIS-v1.json": { "file": "ANALYSIS-v1.json", "sha256": "90926870cfdf61ca943d3804cedd7459d51eceb438b9b5a3cc3769fab01ca540" }, "ANALYSIS-PLAN-v1.json": { "file": "ANALYSIS-PLAN-v1.json", "sha256": "ecd1a9a3fd1318f44bbc6d6a2a29da71e3cd658adeabe6e9f849272b415accb5" }, "NO-ZONE-RESULTS-v1.json": { "file": "NO-ZONE-RESULTS-v1.json", "sha256": "5d8a82607d13861e1666680a09e3cd6e40ec36f8ba8265ff593ffe990ecdf3a6" } } }